Bird-Flu Plans for the USA

Every few weeks we hear of another outbreak of the deadly H5N1 bird flu in bird flocks in Europe, the Middle East, or Asia. This is enough to raise our panic levels once again, although each time they get stimulated like this the response is a little less – like reports of drunk-driving accidents, I guess. Japan has just reported it’s fourth outbreak among birds, and Indonesia has accumulated 63 human deaths from H5N1.

Most countries, including the USA, have some sort of plans to deal with the moment a human pandemic occurs – when transmission from human to human becomes possible through a mutation in the virus. The latest USA strategy has been just been reported, and the findings are only half-way reassuring. To quote the guidelines, “ We must be prepared to face the first wave of the next pandemic without vaccine and potentially without sufficient quantities of influenza antiviral medications.”

The guidelines give detailed advice for what states and communities should do, before a vaccine is available. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) ranks pandemics like hurricanes – Category 1 (mildest) to Category 5 (worst). The 1918 flu pandemic, which killed 50 million people worldwide and 600,000 in the USA alone, would rank as Category 5. An example of a Category 1 would be the last flu pandemic in 12968, with fewer than 90,000 deaths in the USA . (In a ‘normal’ flu season, about 36,000 people die in the USA .)

If the H5N1 virus mutates and causes a pandemic in the USA , this would be a Category 5 – equivalent to 15 Katrinas in disaster value. Schools would need to be closed, and possibly some businesses. Isolation of cases and close contacts would be required in some communities. This ‘social distancing’ is the main message of the detailed non-vaccine, non-medication proposals issued by the CDC. It’s worth reading before it becomes mandatory reading . . .