Lifetime Medical Costs – The Uncomfortable Question

A study reported in the online Public Library of Science has provided a response to a question many people ask, but don’t get answered. Suppose a man has a serious condition (e.g. lung cancer) treated and cured, what will his lifetime medical costs amount to, compared to those if he hadn’t been cured and died quite early? It’s an uncomfortable question for health providers and politicians.

The study in question comes from the Netherlands , but it could probably be reproduced in the USA . Using a simulation model, lifetime healthcare costs were estimated for 3 groups: obese 20-year-olds, smokers, and ‘healthy living’ subjects. The effects of epidemiological factors were assessed. Up to age 56 annual health expenditure was highest for the obese subjects. Above that age, smokers had the higher costs. However, because of their greater life expectancy, lifetime health expenditure was highest in the healthy-living subjects; it was lowest in the smokers, with obese people taking an intermediate position. Changing the epidemiological factors didn’t change these cost estimates.

The bottom line: live longer through healthy living and spend more on health-related costs. Get seriously sick and die sooner, with less overall medical expense.

Of course such considerations must long have been made by insurance companies. After all, you continue to pay health insurance premiums throughout most of your life. But efforts at preventive medicine, especially those for reducing obesity, are expensive and, according to this study, won’t ‘pay for themselves’ as their proponents often claim. No wonder healthcare continues to get more expensive. The more successful it is, the more it costs.