How Likely Are You to Die, or Win the Lottery?

Many of us buy a lottery ticket (or two or hundreds) in the hope that one day our number will ‘come up’. It’s easier, somehow, when part of the purchase price goes to a good cause, such as college scholarships. But how likely are we to win, compared with how likely we are to die during the period of waiting?

The Bandolier Group in UK have made a simple calculation which is illuminating. They compared the chances of dying between Friday and Monday with that of dying over the same period. The odds of dying were as follows:

Total deaths in UK per year = 571,911 = per day 1,567.

Population of UK = 60,587,000

Odds of dying in UK per day = 1 in (60,587,000/1,567) = 1 in 38,667.

Odds of dying in UK over Friday/Saturday/Sunday = 1 in 38,667 x 3 = 1 in 12,889

Odds of winning the UK National Lottery = 1 in 13,983,816

So, one’s chances of dying over the weekend are over 1,000 times greater than winning the lottery (actually, 1,084 times). And that’s without factoring in things like age, chronic disease, and living standards, which can all influence mortality rates. How well do these calculations apply to the USA ? I’ve no idea, but I bet they aren’t all that far off. Maybe someone who reads this post will make the US calculations.