Obesity Beats Smoking in Shortening Life

It looks as if all that effort expended in getting us to stop smoking will be negated by an increased risk of early death from conditions related to obesity.  That’s the result of a study done by Harvard scientists and published in the New England Journal of Medicine. 

Data came from three US surveys: the national Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), the National Health Interview Survey, and the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey.  The researchers made life expectancy forecasts for a representative 18-year-old for each year, from 2005 through 2020, assuming smoking and obesity trends continued over this time.  In the various scenarios used, the negative effects of increasing body mass index (BMI) levels overwhelmed the positive effects of declines in smoking. 

If all US adults became non-smokers and maintained a normal BMI, life expectancy for the imaginary 18-year-old increased between 3.8 and 5.2 years.  However, applying the expected average 48% increase in obesity and a 20% reduction in smoking, the young man’s life expectancy would only range between 0.71 and 0.91 years.

There’s hope, however.  It’s possible (though difficult) to give up smoking and not gain weight. You shouldn’t try it on your own – get help!